Projected Cutline Explained
One of the more interesting things to watch during today’s second round is the cutline. Only the top 60 players, including ties, will qualify to play the final two rounds.
Once the 79th player who tees off today has posted a score for their first hole, the USGA scoring system will begin projecting the cutline. The cutline will appear on the Leaderboard, with players below the line being in danger of heading home for the weekend.
We do not simply show the cutline at the 60th player, as that is unrealistic. Everyone in the field would have to play even par for the remainder of the day for a cutline of that type to be accurate. Our goal is to project at what score the cutline will fall.
Where we show the cutline is determined by projecting what the leaderboard will look like at the end of the second round, then applying the logic to the top 60 players, including ties, to determine where the cut will fall.
The projected leaderboard is determined using a combination of actual player scores and the hole statistics for the holes they’ve yet to play. For example, if a player has played 17 holes in even par in the second round and their 18th hole is statistically a bogey hole, that player’s projected second-round score would be a 1-over 71. That 71 would be combined with their actual first-round score to determine their projected 36-hole score. This process is done for every player every time any player posts a score for a hole. Thus, the projected leaderboard and the corresponding cutline will change throughout the second round as players post hole-by-hole scores, thereby impacting their projected score as well as the hole statistics being used to project the scores for holes yet to be played.